, 2012). Nonetheless, this model has been used to estimate oil outflow using a probabilistic regression type model (Montewka et al., 2010). To alleviate some of these limitations, NVP-BGJ398 cell line van de Wiel and van Dorp (2011) present a regression model for the evaluation of the damage extent and accidental oil outflow conditional to the impact conditions. Their model is based on oil outflow calculations of a large set of damage scenarios for four generic

tanker designs, as reported by NRC (2001). The damage cases are based on a ship collision damage procedure model by Brown and Chen (2002), and the resulting regression model explicitly links impact conditions with oil outflow. However, this model is limited due the assumption of a predefined tanker layout. The model presented in this

paper extends the tanker cargo oil outflow modeling literature on two accounts. First, the model integrates impact scenario variables to damage extents and oil outflows of a range of product tankers with different tank layouts, dropping the predefined tank layout assumption inherent in the model by van de Wiel and van Dorp (2011). The model is constructed such that a reasonable estimate of tank layouts is possible even selleck when limited data is available of the vessels under consideration, as typically available in AIS data1. The model links impact

conditions with oil outflows such that a probabilistic oil outflow can be determined which depends on the local traffic composition in terms of vessel sizes and speeds. Second, Bayesian networks (BNs) are applied as a methodology for probabilistically mapping impact conditions and ship data to oil outflows. Bayesian networks (BNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model which provide a natural way of modeling uncertainty in complex environments (Koller and Friedman, 2009 and Pearl, 1988). BNs have been applied in a range of applications relevant triclocarban for evaluating the effect of accidental oil spills from maritime transportation. Stelzenmüller et al. (2010) applied BNs along with GIS tools to support marine planning. Juntunen et al. (2005) and Lehikoinen et al. (2013) applied BNs to assess the effectiveness of oil combating technologies with respect to environmental impact of oil spills. Lecklin et al. (2011) used BNs to evaluate the biological acute and long-terms impacts of an oil spill. Montewka et al. 2013c) applied BNs to determine the clean-up costs resulting from an oil spill. BNs have also been applied for modeling the consequences of other ship accident types (Montewka et al., 2013a and Montewka et al., 2012a).