Two new channels, leading to more efficient water exchange between the inner lagoon and the outer sea, will be formed according to the projection results. Compared to Scenario 1, an increase in storm frequency has conspicuous effects on coastline change, which are shown in the projection Baf-A1 result of Scenario 2 (Figure 10). Erosion of the coastline is stronger than in Scenario 1 with about 35% more changes on average. The maximum increased retreats on the Darss and the Zingst coastlines are 97 m and 190 m respectively. In contrast to the stronger erosion on most parts of the coast, the growth of the headland

and the Bock area is further developed in Scenario 2 compared to Scenario 1. An increased extension of 150 m of the headland compared to Scenario 1 is predicted in Scenario 2. Such growth is induced by the increased frequency of storms, especially from the west, which scour large amounts of sediment offshore from the shoreline area; these sediments are then gradually transported towards the headland by longshore currents. The increased sedimentation in the Bock area is a combination of storm effects from different

directions (westerly and easterly). The westerly storms induce more deposition in the offshore area by erosion on the Hiddensee coastline, whereas the easterly ones are mainly responsible for erosion on the Zingst coastline, which PD0325901 in vivo provide additional sediment sources for the Bock area. Four new channels are created in Scenario GNAT2 2, two of which are on the Darss coast, one on the Zingst coast and one on Hiddensee. These channels play a

key role in changing the hydrodynamics and turning the inner lagoon system into an open environment that is more vulnerable to storm attack. The effects of accelerated sea level rise (3 mm year−1) on the coastline change are reflected in Scenario 3 (Figure 10). The coastline change caused by such an accelerated sea level rise is even more remarkable than that due merely to increased storm frequency (Scenario 2). Although the coastline of the whole area is facing more changes under the effects of accelerated sea level rise, different parts of the area respond differently. The coastline change on Darss in Scenario 3 is similar to Scenario 2, with an average increased retreat of 45 m compared to Scenario 2. The differences between these two scenarios become distinctive in the headland and the Zingst area. The projected headland in Scenario 3 is much narrower than in Scenarios 1 and 2, even though it is still growing. An increased retreat of about 150 m in the western part and about 165 m in the eastern part of the headland (compared to Scenario 2) is projected in Scenario 3. The ‘thinning’ of the headland is caused mainly by the effects of accelerated sea level rise.